UP elections 2017: Surjit Bhalla column argues the numbers point to a BJP majority

Ahead of the results of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, a column by election forecaster Surjit Bhalla argued that the arithmetic of the contest pointed to a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Lessons from earlier forecasts

The column opened by recalling the Bihar election of 2015, which it described as the start of a bad run for pollsters. Politicians, opinion polls and exit polls had widely expected the BJP to win a majority there about eighteen months after its big Lok Sabha victory, but that did not happen. The writer added that the Brexit referendum and the US presidential election had also caught most forecasters out.

Bhalla wrote that he has made election forecasts since the 1980s, partly as a hobby and partly as professional work. He said he had come close on Bihar, predicting about 60 seats for the BJP and its allies when many expected around 160; the alliance ended with 58. He admitted, however, that he had been badly wrong on the US election, where he had expected Hillary Clinton to win comfortably.

Why UP was seen as different

The column accepted that UP and Bihar are naturally compared: they are the two biggest states in the Hindi heartland and matter greatly for any party hoping to hold power at the Centre. In Bihar, long-time rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav joined hands, with the Congress also on board, to form the Grand Alliance.

The writer’s central argument was that UP in 2017 did not repeat that pattern. Because the Bahujan Samaj Party stayed outside the opposition grouping, he argued, the BJP faced only a partial alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress rather than a united front.

What happened next

In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election the BJP won 312 seats, the Samajwadi Party 47 and the BSP 19. Yogi Adityanath became Chief Minister.

Originally published on 9 March 2017. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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