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UP elections 2017: Math suggests BJP set to win a comfortable majority, says Surjit Bhalla

According To India Vote Kar
It was Bihar 2015 that started the rout—of pollsters, that is. There was near universal expectation by politicians, pollsters, opinion and exit polls that the BJP, eighteen months after their resounding Lok Sabha victory, would romp home in majority glory. It was not to be. Almost the entire class failed. Ditto for the unexpected Brexit vote, and ditto squared for the US election. I have been forecasting elections since the late 1980s, often as a hobby, and sometimes as a part-time profession. I was lucky to get the Bihar election almost spot on right—i.e., I had said that BJP+ would get 60 seats, and not 160 seats as most were predicting. BJP+ obtained 58 seats.

But I did get the US election wrong, and wrong-er than most. I had forecast that Hillary Clinton will win by a landslide, and if it weren’t for the unexpected college educated white women “support” for Trump, I, and practically the whole world, would have been right in forecasting Clinton as president. But that analysis waits another day—maybe if redemption is received in getting the UP forecast right!

UP 2017 is being discussed in the same breath as Bihar 2015—which is as it should be. They are the two largest states, part of the Hindi-Hindu heartland, and both important for long-term success of the party at the Centre. Amidst much fanfare, and discussion, sworn enemies (Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav) joined forces in Bihar 2015, and Congress happily pitched in for the ride. This unity party was appropriately termed MahaGathbandhan (MG)—or Grand Alliance. UP 2017, however, is not Bihar 2015—for the simple reason that a major third party, BSP—has been left out of MG so that the opposition is left with just a G—SP plus Congress.

Source : Financial Express

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