Thursday, March 9th, 2017

Ahead of the results of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, a column by election forecaster Surjit Bhalla argued that the arithmetic of the contest pointed to a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Lessons from earlier forecasts The column opened by recalling the Bihar election of 2015, which it described as the start of a bad run for pollsters. Politicians, opinion polls and exit polls had widely expected the BJP to win a majority there about eighteen months after its big Lok Sabha victory, but that did notRead More