After Jharkhand defeat, why the BJP may need a new strategy for Bihar’s 2020 polls

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led alliance is set to form the government in Jharkhand after nearly five years out of power, having won 47 seats and left the BJP with 25. An analysis of the result argued that the BJP must rethink its strategy and policies if it wants a better showing in Bihar next door, which goes to the polls next year.

What went wrong for the BJP

According to the analysis, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance was widely expected to win even before polling, and quarrels between NDA partners the BJP and the AJSU Party over who would contest which seats gave the opposition a fresh boost. It noted a visible change in the situation during the last two of the five phases, after the Citizenship Amendment Act was passed and protests against it began. Although the JMM is the largest party, the Congress and RJD may seek key portfolios.

Independent candidate Saryu Roy defeated Chief Minister Raghubar Das in Jamshedpur East and said he would judge the government’s policies on their merits. The analysis called the outcome a severe blow after disappointing results in Maharashtra and Haryana, coming only five months after the Lok Sabha polls. It was the first election since the Supreme Court’s Ayodhya judgment, and the CAA was passed in the middle of the campaign. The polls were also probably the last under Amit Shah as BJP president, with working president J. P. Nadda set to take over.

Tribal voters and poll promises

Jharkhand is among the country’s poorest states, and the analysis said the slowdown and high rural unemployment had probably hit it harder than most. Tribal support was crucial: 28 of the 81 Assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, and the JMM drew strong backing from ST voters. In the previous election, the BJP and AJSU had won 30 per cent of the ST vote and 13 ST seats. Under Das, a non-tribal OBC chief minister, the BJP mobilised non-tribal voters in a state carved out of Bihar in 2000 to address tribal grievances, but tribal people, about 30 per cent of the population, appear to have backed the opposition alliance.

The Congress promised to raise OBC reservation to 27 per cent from 14 per cent, a job for at least one person in every household and a separate Sarna religious code for tribal people. The JMM pledged 67 per cent reservation for OBCs, STs and SCs, government jobs for locals, a monthly allowance for jobless graduates (Rs 5,000) and post-graduates (Rs 7,000), and 75 per cent of private-sector jobs for local youth. The analysis said the Congress’s OBC pitch aimed to take the issue away from the BJP and AJSU, which has backed the Kudmi-Mahato community’s demand for ST status; the community makes up around 25 per cent of the population. A BJP plan for a reservation commission for backward caste youth appeared to have been blocked by AJSU’s opposition.

What happened next

Hemant Soren of the JMM became Chief Minister of Jharkhand. J. P. Nadda succeeded Amit Shah as BJP president in January 2020. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, the RJD won 75 seats, the BJP 74, the JD(U) 43 and the Congress 19, and Nitish Kumar was Chief Minister after the election.

See also: BJP and RJD

Originally published on 24 December 2019. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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