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Karnataka political crisis: 4 possible scenarios



  • The Karnataka political crisis continues with the rebel MLAs moving the SC alleging that the speaker was deliberately taking time to accept their resignations


The emergency in Karnataka proceeded on Wednesday with radical MLAs of the Congress and the JD(S) moving the Supreme Court charging that the get together speaker had surrendered his sacred obligation and was intentionally requiring significant investment in tolerating their acquiescences.

The move came after speaker KR Ramesh Kumar on Tuesday said he would take in any event six days to investigate the renunciations of the 13 rebel MLAs, giving some reprieve to the ambushed Congress-JD(S) government.

Live updates: Karnataka emergency

The midway imprint in the 224-part House is 113. Other than the 13 rebels MLAs, suspended Congress MLA Roshan Baig has additionally surrendered – in spite of the fact that he guarantees he isn’t joining the agitators. This implies if the renunciations of the 14 MLAs, including Baig, are acknowledged, the Congress-JD(S) count would decrease to 102. Then, for the BJP, with the help of the two autonomous MLAs and the solitary BSP MLA, its number would increment to 108.


SCENARIO 1: Congress-JD(S) survives
Four or five of the 13 rebel MLAs return to the coalition fold by withdrawing their resignations and accept cabinet positions. If this doesn’t suffice, JD(S) and Congress could script a reverse poaching operation to get four or five BJP MLAs to resign.

SCENARIO 2: BJP returns to power
If the resignations of the rebels are accepted by the speaker, the BJP, with 108 MLAs (including 2 independent MLA and BSP MLA) will be in a position to form the government. The strength of the coalition would be reduced to 102 (including Baig). With 13 vacancies, the halfway-mark in the assembly would fall to 106 and the governor could invite the BJP to form the government.

SCENARIO 3: SC intervenes
With 10 rebel Karnataka MLAs of the Congress and JD(S) coalition moving the Supreme Court alleging that the speaker has deliberately not accepted their resignations, SC may ask the speaker to make a decision earlier. It could even ask for a floor test in the assembly.

SCENARIO 4: Fresh elections
If the resignations of the rebels are accepted and the two independent MLAs and the BSP MLA refuse to support the BJP (keeping it to 105), the governor may recommend president’s rule. Kumaraswamy may be asked to remain caretaker chief minister until elections are held, or the state be helmed by the governor until polls are held.

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