Exit polls 2019: most pollsters predict NDA will cross 300 seats

Exit polls released on Sunday, 19 May, after the last phase of voting in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, mostly predicted a clear majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), ahead of the counting of votes on 23 May. A party or alliance needed more than 271 seats to form the government.

National projections

• CVoter: NDA 287, UPA 128.
• Times Now-VMR: NDA 306, UPA 132, others 104.
• News18-IPSOS: NDA 336.
• India Today-Axis My India: NDA 339-365.
• ABP News-Nielsen: of 455 seats projected so far, NDA 219, Congress 94, others 104.

Past records were mixed. In 2009 the CNN-IBN-CSDS poll put the NDA at 165, closest to its actual 159, though it misjudged the UPA. In 2014 every exit poll pointed to an NDA win, but only Today’s Chanakya foresaw a BJP majority on its own.

State-level forecasts

• Uttar Pradesh: where the BJP won 71 of 80 seats in 2014, ABP-Nielsen gave it only 22, while India Today gave the NDA 62 to 68, the UPA 1-2 and the SP-BSP alliance 10-16.
• West Bengal: India Today put the BJP at 19-23 and the Trinamool Congress at 19-22; Times-VMR gave the TMC 29; ABP-Nielsen gave the BJP 16 and the TMC 24.
• Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi: Chanakya-News24 predicted a BJP sweep of 26, 10 and 7 seats respectively, and 9 seats in Chhattisgarh.
• Maharashtra: BJP gains, with 42-45 seats (News18) or 38-42 (India Today).
• Telangana and Andhra Pradesh: Chanakya gave the TRS 14 of 17 and the TDP 17 of 25, with the YSR Congress taking the other eight.
• Karnataka: ABP gave the BJP 15 and the UPA 13; Axis My India gave the BJP 21-25.
• Tamil Nadu: the Congress-DMK alliance was tipped to win 34-38 (Axis) or 31 of 38 (Chanakya).
• Bihar: the BJP-JD(U) alliance was put at 32 by Chanakya and 33 by CVoter.
• Odisha: News18 gave the BJD 12-14 and the BJP 6-8, while Axis put the BJP at 15-19.

Reactions

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said on Twitter that she did not believe the exit poll predictions, alleged they were part of a plan to manipulate EVMs, and urged opposition parties to stay united. National Conference leader Omar Abdullah wrote that every exit poll could not be wrong.

What happened next

Votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election were counted on 23 May 2019. The BJP won 303 of the 543 seats and the Congress 52, and Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term as Prime Minister on 30 May 2019.

See also: election results and schedules

Originally published on 20 May 2019. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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