While other political parties have declared their candidates for the coming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections next year, the BJP is yet to reveal its cards. Some political observers and opponents have noted that this gives a decided edge to the other political contenders. The BJP is, however, not worried. It appears confident of turning the supposed disadvantage to its advantage and do what is called ‘man-to-man marking’ in selecting its candidates. The party has claimed that opening its game plan at the last moment would help it in analysing the strengths and weaknesses of rival candidates and field its most suitable contender.

Understanding UP

While there are many arguments (as above) in favour of a CM candidate in UP, let us consider the political circumstances of the State. The following chart lists vote share data for the last six elections (Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha) in Uttar Pradesh.The purpose of the graph is to highlight the volatility of vote shares for each voting group and reliance on specific voting groups and no interpretations are to be made with respect to the likely vote shares in 2017.

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