Some 36 hours after the BJP brought down the HD Kumaraswamy-led JD(S)-Congress government in Karnataka, the party’s camp in Bengaluru had fallen silent, with no word from the national leadership on when BS Yeddyurappa would move to form the next government.

Waiting on Delhi

Many party workers had expected Yeddyurappa to take over as chief minister straight away. Instead, he is waiting for party president Amit Shah’s signal before staking a claim, and he has postponed a trip to Delhi on the high command’s advice.

State BJP leaders say the central leadership is proceeding carefully because petitions seeking the disqualification of 15 rebel Congress and JD(S) MLAs are still pending before Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar. Both former ruling parties are pressing for the rebels to be disqualified.

The arithmetic

If the 15 are disqualified, the effective strength of the 224-member House would fall to 205, and the BJP could narrowly win a trust vote with its own 105 MLAs. If the Speaker delays his decision, the BJP would fall short of the 112 or 113 needed, and even a successful attempt would leave a fragile government. The party could bring the rebels back from Mumbai to vote, but leaders fear some might drift back to the Congress and the JD(S).

Disqualified MLAs could join a BJP ministry only after winning by-elections, and they fear the BJP may not give all of them tickets. Former chief minister Siddaramaiah, the Congress legislature party leader, has vowed to defeat the defectors, calling them “traitors” and “most shameless people”. The Congress says its doors are closed to them for good.

Other hurdles

Forming a cabinet is another headache: more than 60 aspirants are competing for 34 berths, and at least 10 rebels would have to be accommodated, which could upset senior party members. Yeddyurappa, 76, is beyond the party’s age bar for ministerial posts, but the BJP is seen as unable to run Karnataka without him, since many MLAs are loyal to him and the defectors agreed to back a government only because of him.

The finance bill must also be passed by July 31; otherwise the government will have no money to spend and employees may go unpaid. Given these complications, there was speculation that the Centre could impose President’s Rule with the Assembly in suspended animation, lifting it once things settle so that Yeddyurappa could be sworn in as chief minister for a fourth time.

What happened next

The Kumaraswamy government had fallen in July 2019, and Yeddyurappa went on to return as Chief Minister.

See also: Bharatiya Janata Party | Janata Dal (Secular)

Originally published on 25 July 2019. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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