BJP looks to east and northeast for 2019 gains after losing three heartland states

The Bharatiya Janata Party was relying on making significant gains in eastern and northeastern India in the 2019 general election, after defeats in its traditional strongholds left it on the defensive.

The setback

This month the party lost power in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and the Congress formed governments in all three, giving the main opposition party fresh energy. The results raised doubts about whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi could repeat his sweeping 2014 win, described as the largest mandate in 30 years.

The BJP’s plan and the arithmetic

Party president Amit Shah, speaking at an event in Mumbai on Wednesday, said gains in the northeast and east, combined with a steady showing in the Hindi-speaking heartland, would bring the party back to power. Calculations based on state poll trends and estimates by politicians and analysts, however, suggested the BJP could lose about 40 to 50 of the 282 seats it won at the last general election, given the Congress revival and efforts by opposition parties to come together. A party or coalition needs at least 272 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha to form a government.

What happened next

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election the BJP won 303 of 543 seats and the Congress 52, and Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term on 30 May 2019.

See also: Bharatiya Janata Party · Elections

Originally published on 22 December 2018. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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