Gujarat polls: betting market predicts 107-110 seats for BJP

Bookmakers in the Phalodi and Bikaner betting markets are predicting a win for the BJP in the Gujarat assembly election, but with fewer seats than before. Their current estimate gives the BJP 107 to 110 seats and the Congress 70 to 72.

A quieter market

According to the bookies, trade is now only about one-fourth of what it was during last year’s Uttar Pradesh assembly election. One bookie said punters lost heavily in UP because they had expected the BJP to take around 192 to 200 seats, and the party’s actual tally was much higher. During the UP contest some people placed bets of up to Rs 1 crore, he said, whereas most punters now limit themselves to a few thousand rupees. He added that losses in UP had run into crores.

The rate being offered is 50 paisa for the BJP and Rs 2 for the Congress. Bookies said seat estimates keep shifting even though few doubt the BJP will win, and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s series of public meetings in his home state could move the numbers further. Another bookie said regular punters were watching daily developments and playing safe, with business and larger bets expected only from the first week of December.

Context and Himachal

The Gujarat assembly has 182 seats. In 2012 the BJP won 115 and the Congress 68. Punters have shown little interest in the Himachal Pradesh election. A bookie explained that Gujarat draws attention because it is directly linked to the Prime Minister as his home state, which is not the case with Himachal.

What happened next

In the 2017 Gujarat election the BJP won 99 seats and the Congress 77. Vijay Rupani was Chief Minister after the election.

See also: Gujarat assembly members

Originally published on 1 December 2017. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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