Why Uttar Pradesh matters so much to the BJP in 2019

A column argued that, for all the complexity of India’s general elections, the 2019 outcome would turn largely on one question: how the Bharatiya Janata Party performs in Uttar Pradesh. The answer, it said, would decide whether India got another BJP majority government, a BJP-led coalition without a majority, or a government of non-BJP parties.

The weight of Uttar Pradesh

The column noted that analysis of the 2019 contest involved many factors: leadership, alliances on both sides, regional fault-lines and caste dynamics in each constituency. But it said UP had always carried outsized influence because of its size, its social make-up, its share of Lok Sabha seats and the leaders it sends to national politics, and that the BJP’s fortunes in Delhi had tracked its performance there.

In 2014 the party won 71 of the state’s 80 seats on its own, and 73 with allies. According to the column, that result made it the single largest party and gave it a majority of its own, something no government had achieved in 30 years. Its 2017 assembly win further strengthened its hold on the state.

What has changed

The writer argued that two things were different in 2019. The BJP was now the incumbent rather than the challenger, and it faced a united opposition. The effect of the Samajwadi Party–Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, had been seen in the Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana by-elections.

The BJP’s strategy, as the column saw it

• Relying on Narendra Modi’s image and the lack of a clear prime ministerial rival in the opposition.
• Expecting central welfare schemes, especially rural housing and gas cylinders, to widen its support.
• Counting on rising fervour around the Ram temple and Hindutva to mobilise Hindu voters.
• Leaning on organisational work under Amit Shah, including booth-level effort and outreach through new technology.

Whether this would let the party keep its dominance, or at least limit its losses, would decide who governed India after 2019, the column concluded.

What happened next

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election the BJP won 303 of 543 seats on its own, and Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term on 30 May 2019.

Originally published on 6 November 2018. Rewritten on 9 October 2026.

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